Ministry of External Affairs Government of India

Challenges for India in the emerging International Order

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  By: Amb (Retd) Suresh Kumar Goel
  Venue: National Academy of Audit & Accounts, Simla
  Date: October 23, 2018
  

Thank, Director General of the National Academy of Audit and Accounts,and welcome the participants to this programme. It is important for senior officers tasked with the responsibility to ensure optimal use of limited public resources in accordance with the laid down architecture of both rules and regulations, and the process, to understand the dynamics of fast changing global strategic environment so that India is able to play an effective role commensurate with its growing stature on the world stage.

Understanding of the Foreign Policy and its strategic framework is acquiring increasing significance in the era of growing globalisation which is taking place despite the trend of increasing clamour for nationalistic and rightist policies in developed world including US and a large part of Europe. Countries calling for globalisation are also often those who have global aspirations, and some of them also become hegemonistic global power like the UK before WW II, the USA after WW II and till now, and China now trying to displace the USA.

References have been made to transition from Westphilian world to a global system led by international and regional organisations like the UN, EU, AU etc.

Westphilia was the European response to the intra Europe contests by defining territorial integrity as the criterion for sovereignty. Global hegemony however requires sovereign influences beyond territorial limits. Even in Asia where civilizational, cultural and customary influences were the elements of sovereignty, and in Africa where tribal affinities transcended territorial boundaries, the Westiphilian Model is actually in contradiction with the norms of political power.

Rapid globalisation of national powers could be the nail in the coffin for Westphilia.

The 21st century International order had witnessed several significant shifts in power equations. It may be too early to label these shifts as cataclysmic. The current decade has seen rapid acceleration in these changes leading to uncertainties in foreign policy outlook even in areas considered the stable core of the international order even during the first decade of the current millennium.

One of the most important shift is from globalization to more nationalistic policies of major powers. USA, even before Trump had begun to turn inwards because of challenges it faced in domestic economic growth, rise of nationalist rightist trends in western world, the challenges faced from instability and terrorism in Afghanistan, the sectarian conflicts in middle east, the Syrian war and tendency from its traditional partners like Turkey to develop new linkages with Russia, Iran and China which would have been considered unlikely just a few years ago.

Election of Trump as President of the USA on the slogan of ‘America first’ solidified these new fault lines. His statements often of a transactional nature have slowly eroded the international stature of the US. Trump’s statement calling for Japan and Korea to take greater responsibility for security in East Asia, compelling Europe to dedicate greater resources to the security structures including NATO and almost a hands off approach to South East Asia has resulted in a kind of vacuum which presents an open invitation to emerging powers to displace USA role internationally. The military, economic and technological might of the USA is unlikely to be challenged for about a decade, the rapidly rising capacity of China in these areas creates little comfort for countries in the region.

It was not more than five years ago that the world had begun to look at China as a country which could challenge the USA as a world power. However, that was more of great admiration for economic and technological accomplishments of China, and just a little wariness about the time when the dragon would actually begun to spew fire. Incidents in the last five years have demonstrated the earlier estimates of at least about two decades that China would take to challenge the USA militarily and technologically have been now telescoped into a decade and perhaps another five years as of the date.

China is now an acknowledged power in cyber technology and artificial intelligence. Its military reach has now gone beyond south China seas and Western Pacific to Indian Ocean sharpening the focus of littoral countries on Indo-Pacific as region of considerable strategic importance. We will talk more about this later.

The recent developments in Korean peninsula have moved at astonishing speed in unexpected directions, creating a mirage of possible peace, stability and reasonably good relations between the two Koreans.While the denuclearization may be chimera, possibilities of the USA accepting North Korea with Nuclear weapons in the region and working on security architecture for East Asia on that premise would not but create uncertain peace for Japan which has always looked at North Korea as a security threat. The recent visit by North Korean President, Kim Jong-un to China which most likely was to keep China closely involved in the Korean dialogue and the future possible summit with Trump, will only compound the Japanese fears of China which could possibly lead to a review of the Japanese defence policies.

India faces unique challenges amidst these complexities.

Growing rapidly, economically and finally acquiring role commensurate with its potential in the region and globally, the foreign policy structure now faces new challenges in its immediate and extended neighborhood.

The main elements of the Indian strategic behavior over the last two decades can be defined as strategic autonomy, Look East Policy which has now change to Act East Policy, immediate neighborhood in South Asia as the area of Indian influence, Indian Ocean extending up-to East Asia and the Eastern Africa as the strategic reach for Indian Power and relations with the USA and the West to provide the heft needed to accomplish these strategic objectives. All of this is now being challenged by the emerging Chinese power and the behavior of its proxies such as Pakistan and Maldives in defying the critical Indian security interests in the regions.

The first indication of China assuming an assertive posture in International relations came when the Chinese President Xi Jinping speaking at Davos immediately after Trump’s election as President on the inner looking America first Policy, announced the willingness of China to work for increasing globalization. This economic globalization has slowly turn into a hegemonistic approach of China to Indo-Pacific region.

One Belt One Road (OBOR) is a clear manifestation of these hegemonistic tendencies. OBOR is essentially an aggregator of bilateral projects which China has with several countries along the belt and the road to strengthen infrastructure projects including roads, railway networks, ports, bases, gas pipelines, transmission lines which would connect China with Europe through surface route or the belt passing through North West of China, Central Asia and on to Europe. Simultaneously, it develops maritime navigational architecture passing through South East Asia, Sri Lanka, Gwadar port in Pakistan and on to Djibouti through Indian Ocean ports in Maldives and Seychelles.

These connectivity related developments would possibly have dual use including the military use and have the potential of blocking maritime access to vital Indian trade routes.

China Pakistan economic corridor (CPEC) which is part of the OBOR or BRI initiative of China not only passes through the Indian Territory occupied by China in Gilgit-Baltistan but it also connects with Gwadar port causing a security threat to India.

The incidents in Doklam illustrated that the countries which have been traditionally depended on the Indian influence for security assurances, may no longer be able to repulse the Chinese aggression. Maldives has clearly illustrated that the Indian Ocean can no longer be considered only Indian and South Asia is no longer the area of Indian reserve.

ASEAN and South East Asia look at India as the security rebalance to China but are afraidto take a lead in challenging an aggressive Chinese behavior in the region. It therefore remains for India to find ways to maintain and strengthen its influence, political, economical and military in the region.

The asymmetry between India and China in almost all areas including economy, technology, infrastructure and military demands a careful and calculative approach by India which must accommodate the Chinese objectives and promote long term Indian interests.

However, India is not a solitary actor on this stage. We need to build connections of friendship and mutual dependence to support our objectives when we need it.

Our efforts to become a permanent member of the UNSC is not just an attempt to remove the inequities in the almost only international organisation with universal membership, the United Nations but also to rebalance the power equations which have been biased in favour of a few, one of them being our neighbour which not only has a territorial dispute with India but being a declared nuclear power with fast growing economic, political and military muscle, also has begun to challenge the US power in the pacific and the Indian Ocean, where India has critical strategic interests.

The recent speech by US Vice President Mr Pence at the Hudson Institute is suggestive of the beginning of the clash of titans which many analysts have already begun to describe as beginning of Cold War II.

This will inevitably lead to realignment of global powers including India. The visit of President Putin to India from October 4-5 must be looked in that context. The military deals were important but in my view, what was even more important was the attempt by the two old well established friends to redefine the power balances in the region of their immediate interest, Eurasia in terms of emerging contests and mutuality of interest. I can do no better than to read the penultimate paragraph of the statement.

India welcomed the initiative of Russia to create a Larger Eurasian Partnership that stipulates conjugation of national development strategies and multilateral integration projects in the interests of building effective platform of constructive cooperation based on strict observance of the international law, principles of equality, mutual respect and taking in account each other national perspectives.

The Sides expressed their satisfaction on the progress in India - Russia relations, shared interests and similar positions on issues of bilateral and international importance and agreed to continue this trajectory of closer cooperation, coordination and consolidation of gains to surge ahead the Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership of India and Russia for the mutual prosperity of people of both countries.

The recent initiatives like QUAD, Asia-Africa growth corridor, our developing links with the African countries, our strengthening relations with USA as the pivot in Indo-Pacific and our Act East policy needs to be seen as a part of Indian efforts to work around this asymmetrical relation with China for long term interests.

I hope to deal with these bilateral issues in Q&A.