Ministry of External Affairs Government of India

India's outreach to the Middle East and West Asia

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  By: Amb (Retd) Anil Trigunayat
  Venue: Pondicherry University
  Date: March 27, 2018
  

• Hon’ble Vice Chancellor, esteemed Faculty and dear students of the University of Pondicherry,
  It is indeed a great pleasure and honour for me to be with you this afternoon to deliberate on India’s Outreach to our extended neighbourhood in West Asia , which is an area of my special interest. I am also grateful to University for their kind invitation and hospitality and to the XPD Division of Ministry of External Affairs for sending me to this beautiful and historic city under the Distinguished Lecture Series Initiative that takes the dimensions of Indian Foreign Policy to our youth and academics across the country. My special thanks to Professor Mathur and Dr Jaiswal for the exceptional assistance and excellent coordination. During my talk the words Middle east and West Asia will be used interchangeably as you might know India has preferred to call it West Asia for decades as against the colonial lexicon of Middle East.
• India has enjoyed exceptionally close , historic and civilizational ties with West Asia. Most of the Gulf countries are in close vicinity and extremely important for India’s strategic and energy security. There is tremendous good will and bonhomie for India and the Indians in the region. Indians account for over 9 million and in most cases constitute as the largest expat community. They have emerged as great contributors to the wellbeing and development of their host economies and countries. Indians are the preferred workforce due to their discipline and sincerity of purpose and hardworking ethos. Indians especially in the GCC countries remit over $ 35 billion annually to India that adds to our vital foreign exchange reserves. More importantly they really act as India’s goodwill Ambassadors. They have emerged as the major trading and investment collaborators. In fact in 2008 UAE had surpassed China to become our biggest trading partner as thousands of Indian companies established their presence in their Special Economic Zones. Since then the relations with almost all countries in the Middle east have deepened, diversified and expanded which is also marked by highest level exchanges especially under PM Narendra Modi in a more structured and focussed manner .I will dwell on the visits and their outcomes in due course.
• The Gulf region has historical, political, economic, strategic and cultural significance for India. It is a part of our extended neighborhood separated from India only by the Arabian Sea. This region is an area of special focus in India’s foreign policy and over the coming decades its importance will increase manifolds. The Gulf region’s substantial oil and gas reserves are of vital importance for our ‘energy security’. It supplies over 70% of India’s oil and gas requirements. Given that the Gulf countries offer tremendous potential for cooperation in trade, investment, energy, manpower etc. India, therefore, has a stake in peace, stability, security and economic wellbeing of the Gulf in particular and West Asia in general.
• There are many common political and security concerns of India and the Gulf countries, which could translate into coordinated efforts for peace, security and stability in the Gulf region, and security of the maritime routes passing through the region. The Gulf States are going through a significant change and transformation. Emerging common threat perceptions create further opportunities for West Asia -India cooperation in the future. This envisages jointly preparing to meet emerging domestic and regional challenges, foremost being the common threat from terrorism and fundamentalism. Thus, both the Gulf and the West Asian region and India need to cooperate and coordinate their efforts to combat such forces to meet their challenge. These are clearly addressed and reflected in the discussions during high level interactions and statements issued thereafter ( visit www.mea.gov.in) . For example in 2017, India and UAE signed a Comprehensive Security Partnership that encompasses areas of cooperation hitherto uncharted. In this effort the US and other external power dynamic and presence in the region will also need to be taken into account especially as several western countries have established their bases in the region and their interests , if at cross purposes, could have an adverse impact on our own security. Similarly fall out of intra- regional conflicts will also impact our choices and consequently our national interest.

Historical Perspective:


• India has had historic and civilizational links and interactions at least from the Indus- Dilmun and Mesopotamia times through trade and intellectual exchanges. India's engagement with the Arabian Peninsula dates back to several millennia when traders and sailors from South Asia used to sail across the Arabian Sea, in boats made of Malabar wood . The first historically recorded maritime trade route in the world was between the civilizations of the Indus Valley and Dilmun, which was located on the island of Bahrain. By 2000 BC, Dilmun acquired a monopoly in trade between the Indian subcontinent and the civilizations of Mesopotamia. During Roman times, Yemen was the trade conduit for some highly valued types of incense from India. At the same time, Oman was dominating the Indian Ocean trade between India, the Middle East, and East Africa. By the end of the first millennium BC, trade between India and Arabia became the economic backbone of the Arabian peninsula. Centuries old bilateral trade benefitted both sides greatly as it enhanced their knowledge and understanding of each other and the Arabs acted as a conduit to the West taking Indian knowledge like numerals and traded Spices, foodstuffs jewellery, textiles and muslin and other goods flowed from India toward the Arab region, while pearls and dates were exported from the Gulf region. Economic ties continued during the British rule in India. No wonder Indian Rupee was a legal tender in several countries until the 1970s.
• Relations have grown, deepened and diversified over the millennia. India’s policy of "Look West” has been converted to "Link and Act West "during the past four decades even though high level visits from India were few and far between. This hiatus was addressed from 2008 onwards when former PM Manmohan Singh visited Oman, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. High level exchanges have become frequent with PM Modi on the horizon. India and Indians despite Muslim countries’ empathic relations with Pakistan continue to be liked and respected by the people and governments in the Middle east since they are looked at as a stable and committed work force contributing to the wellbeing of the host countries . No wonder in GCC alone we have a huge diaspora mainly from southern part of India and thousands of Indian companies and businesses are making the region as India’s major trading hub and partner. The region is also extremely important for India’s energy security as almost 65-70% of our oil and gas requirements are met from there. In addition the Indian diaspora remittances contribute greatly to India’s foreign exchange reserves . In recent times the richer countries in the region have begun to see India as a viable investment destination and opportunity. India is trying to veer the sovereign wealth funds to invest in it’s over a trillion dollar opportunity especially in infrastructure. UAE has already committed to invest US$75 billion and like wise Qatar and Saudi Arabia are identifying India’s business potential. The countries in the region also look towards India as a stabilising force and would like to see more and more Indian security presence in the region . Hitherto we have been somewhat reluctant but this has changed in recent times as we have created institutionalised defence and security mechanisms with the key partners in the region.

Situation in the Middle East:


• Since the Arab Spring of 2010, the Middle East is in a downward flux and the present day conundrum has the potential to destabilise the region which can have devastating impact on India which is the close strategic neighbour. While this situation may have been externally induced and exacerbated with the 2003 misadventure by the US in Iraq or for that matter in the backdrop of the so called Arab Spring, the NATO bombing of Libya and extended conflict in Syria , the Arab countries have also given wind to their deep seated intra- Arab and Shia- Sunni conflicts and religious leadership and race for one-upmanship and superiority in varying regional landscapes leading to further destabilisation and unpredictability which could have disastrous ramifications for the countries themselves in this " Mutually Assured Destruction” syndrome . While the Arab Spring in the past seven years has witnessed qualitative change broadly through overthrow of the well-entrenched regimes the Gulf Monarchies despite the rifts and inherent contradictions installed the younger leaders in decisive leadership positions be it Saudi Arabia , Qatar or UAE.- three major economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and in West Asia that are currently in an internecine blockade and turmoil since June last year . This was further compounded by the new US Administration under President Trump which has directly or indirectly nudged the Saudis away by reversing the Obama outreach to Iran and casting doubts on the viability and veracity of the famous agreement JCPOA reached by P5+1. Peace is under threat. Saudi- Iran vitriolic has been further accentuated and their proxy wars in Yemen and Syria could conflagrate further .The GCC and Iran are also heavily armed as the major suppliers and vacillating benefactors like the US made the hay while the petro- dollars bursted the streams. This was yet again reiterated only last week when Crown Prince Salman of Saudi Arabia met US President Trump who in order to partake and garner in the wealth of Saudis offered the latest weapons yet again to the Gulf state which is as such heavily armed and sitting on a delicate balance. According to SIPRI last year over 33 % of global arms exports were destined to the West Asian region.
• GCC itself is on the verge of irrelevance and disintegration due to the almost yearlong simmering conflict between Qatar and Saudi/UAE led combine with Bharain and Egypt in concert that has defied any resolution. In the process Turkey and Iran have expanded their influence. Kuwaiti and Omani efforts to patch up have been in vain. In addition, Saudi Arabia and UAE have entered into an unprecedented strategic partnership agreement which can have its own graph that could be inimical to the overall stability of the region with the on-going Yemen and Syrian wars in their flank with Iran as their main target. The conflicts have the potential to further expand the footprints of diverse extremist and terrorist groups which is ironic as almost all nations are vouching hoarse their credentials for the fight against terrorism . With the low oil princes and renewables taking ascendance chances of irritants acquiring salience are high unless the regimes in the region become more tolerant to reform oriented domestic policies as well as mutual respect and understanding in their intra-regional relations. On top of it through their forces and bases the US, UK, France and Russia continue to pursue their geo strategic objectives like fight against ISIS or counter piracy operations or keeping their oil supply and trading routes open arguably for ensuring some stability in the region. The Trump Administration’s somewhat ad hoc and unconventional style of conducting foreign policy through tweets and junking of the multilateral agreements arrived at after great difficulty and prolonged negotiations especially relating to Iran be it in the Shia-Sunni context or Saudi led tiff and blockade of Qatar or for that matter declaring Jerusalem as the capital of Israel have indeed created an uncertainty, unease and sense of instability among the countries in the Middle East. This has also its flip side too. At the same time Israel seemingly has advanced engagement with the GCC countries especially with Saudi Arabia and UAE in pursuance to US initiative or lack of initiative with regard to Middle East Peace Process that has been hibernating. While in the UNGA all ME countries made noises and voted against US declaring Jerusalem as the capital of Israel they have begun to ruminate over the possibility of "one state solution” as was mentioned by UAE Minister Anwar Gargash and are even ready to persuade the Palestinians . It will not be easy for the Palestinian leadership to ward it off for too long given the current state of affairs and thaw between major Arab countries and the Jewish state. Of course popular discontent among the Palestinians and Intifada will be hard to manage. But for countries like India who wish to maintain the symmetry of benign cooperation with almost all countries some potential challenges are inherent should things go out of hand. Equanimity for us in the regional and bilateral context will be confronted by hard choices. This would include playing a much bigger role in the intra-regional affairs as a honest interlocutor.

Recent Outreach to the Region:

Middle East especially the GCC is India’s immediate neighbourhood. It is strategic and bears directly on India’s wellbeing and vice versa. The relations have been extremely close for centuries through trade and travel and the Arabs have been the carriers of Indian knowledge to the west and therefore contributed a great deal to India and the global good. India’s strategic asset is it’s huge diaspora who are contributing to the local economies and who range from industrialists, investors, top notch professionals ,doctors bankers, nurses , programmers to blue collar workers. They contribute to India’s economic strength through remittances to the tune of $ 60 bn per annum. That is almost equal to the FDI India received. Their security and welfare is a foreign policy imperative for us. India depends heavily on the petroleum resources of the region and imports of 70% of its crude oil and 85% of its natural gas requirements and consequently is a major stake holder in their stability ,progress and prosperity. UAE alone can boast of over 5000 Indian companies in their special economic zones and it has emerged as a major entrepot to Indian products and exports to the region and rest of the world.
• Palestine issue has been a very sensitive one and treated as a yard stick of India’s sincerity. India has always unstintingly supported the Palestinian cause which was also very dear to the ME countries. Arab -Israeli relations have their own negative dynamic in the international public perception and outreach. But the dynamic in the region has also changed and the hostility towards Israel to a great extent appears to be diminishing. India’s relationship with Israel provided some fodder to the critics who accused India of diluting its support and cooperation with the Arab world but India had kept Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat in the loop while establishing diplomatic relations in 1992. India continued to maintain good relations with all the countries in the region to sub serve her own national interest. Our stand and support has been clear and articulated in all the fora while giving huge assistance to the Palestinians both as grant and in capacity building. Hence the balanced equation was maintained. As late as at the last UNGA , Mrs Sushma swaraj the External affairs Minister reiterated India's historical support for Palestine stating that that it will be a central point of our foreign policy. "For independent India support for the Palestinian cause has been a reference point of its foreign policy," she told the Nonaligned Movement's Ministerial Committee on Palestine on the side-lines of the high-level General Assembly meeting. "I strongly believe that India's expanding relations in the region with all nations will only strengthen the Palestinian cause, that can never be undermined" she said. This cleared the deck for any doubt.
• After PM Modi took over, the Arab governments were concerned and apprehensive that India might adopt a more pro-Israeli policy under the new government at the expense of traditional relations with them and the Palestinian cause itself will suffer . Besides the longstanding personal friendship and bonhomie between PM Modi and PM Netanyahu made them wary. This was soon dispelled. PM Modi understood the exceptional importance of relations with the Middle East that included Israel too. Hence a rounded and balanced relationship was to follow. PM Modi converted the "Look west” policy to " Link and ACT West " through his very first visit to the UAE followed by Qatar and Saudi Arabia as well as to Iran from (August 2015 to June 2016) in the first two years and to Israel in 2017 to celebrate the 25th anniversary of diplomatic relations. Besides several of the leaders from the region visited India. Crown Prince of UAE was the Chief guest on our Republic Day . Exceptional collaboration in security & intelligence matters with an unusual emphasis on counter terrorism cooperation was the hallmark of the declarations post the visit that clearly targeted the cross border and havens of terrorism especially in Pakistan that was a warning to them since hitherto under the Islamic cloak Pakistan was able to garner their support as benefactors. This was no longer available or at least was qualified which is a stellar achievement. The Joint Statement with UAE was an exceptional document as it forbade Pakistan to use UAE territory for anti-India activities which has hitherto been the case as the fugitive terrorist Dawood and his D Company and several others had been taking refuge in UAE and shuttling between Pakistan and the UAE while carrying out anti-India activities. In fact several accused Indian origin terrorists were extradited to India. Most recent case was that of the close aide of Dawood – the notorious Farouq Takla which is clearly an indication of the respect and resolve to genuinely address mutual concerns. More over, billions of dollars of strategic investments in India have been agreed to by these countries. While Iran is the Gateway of India to Central Asia and Afghanistan through the strategic Chabahar port, the GCC countries are integral to India’s energy security, over all security and counter terrorism efforts as well as safety and welfare of the huge Indian diaspora as. No wonder PM Modi visited UAE the second time this year after Palestine as the Indo UAE Relations have acquired a special strategic character. Several MoUs were signed in railways, energy sector , financial services and manpower. But for the first time an MoU between an Indian consortium (OVL, BPRL& IOCL) and Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) was signed that allows the acquisition of 10% participating interest amounting to $600 million in Abu Dhabi’s offshore Lower Zakum concession for 40 years .A highly significant development that was not conceivable until recently as hitherto we only had a buyer seller relationship with UAE. Similarly strategic storage of oil has been in the pipeline.
• Indo- Israeli relations were catapulted to a new orbit during PM Modi’s July 2017 visit to Tel Aviv -the first ever by an Indian Prime Minister followed by PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to India from January 14-19 early this year . Israel has emerged as a major and reliable security , intelligence and Counter -terrorism partner for India. In defence it is the third largest supplier after USA and Russia with over $ 1bn turnover and many more deals in the pipeline. Reputed for its arid agricultural technologies it has become a close partner in India’s food security. S&T and Cyber Space as well as intelligence cooperation have become new frontiers of cooperation. Israel now commands the friendship of the oldest democracy (USA) and the largest democracy (India). There is a great friendship and bonhomie between the two leaders .Elated Netanyahu welcomed PM Modi " We waited 70 years for you” which says it all. PM Modi reciprocated with exceptional hospitality to Mr & Mrs Netanyahu on their first visit to India. Indo-Israel relations have reached a great level of comfort and maturity.
• On the issue of Palestine, India has maintained its principled stand but has de-hyphenated the interactive and collaborative paradigm. PM Modi visited Israel without visiting Palestine but had invited President Mahmoud Abbas to India and assured him of India’s consistent political and economic support . Palestinians trusted India and value Indian assistance. This was clearly visible in the wake of President Trump declaring Jerusalem as the Capital of Israel and shifting of their Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem thereby creating a big setback to the resolution of this festering problem and the struggling Middle East Peace Process in violation of the agreed redlines, when India stuck to its position and voted against the US proposal at the UNGA which was highly appreciated by the Arab world. Earlier India took an independent view on issues raised by either side during various UN votes.
• Although it may have irked Israel and the US, on India’s vote in the UNGA on Jerusalem , PM Netanyahu dismissed it as "One Vote does not decide the bilateral relationship” which is on a sound and trusted footing. In fact, the Joint Statement during PM Netanyahu’s visit articulated the way forward: ‘The two Prime Ministers discussed the developments pertaining to the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process. They reaffirmed their support for an early resumption of peace talks between Israelis and Palestinians for arriving at a comprehensive negotiated solution on all outstanding issues, based on mutual recognition and effective security arrangements, for establishing a just and durable peace in the region.’ A profound relationship calls for maturely managing the differences. And that was done while exchanging views and positions on matters of bilateral, regional and global importance within the ambit of strategic partnership. It is a win-win partnership that is bound to take a higher trajectory over the years to come.
• On the other hand PM Modi became the first Indian Prime Minister to visit Palestine -Ramallah on February 9 this year discarding any doubts that any Arab watchers have had. This was the clearest reiteration of India’s position. President Abbas conferred the Grand Collar- on PM Modi which the highest Palestinian award given only to a very few . Palestinian leadership which has discarded US as an honest broker of Peace and hopes that India perhaps could play a more proactive role in the middle east. Even Syrians and other have been looking to India for an enhanced political role. Pm Modi went to Ramallah via Amman where he had extensive discussions on counter terrorism , deradicalization and economic and security collaboration as well as on issue of Jerusalem and Palestine. King Abdullah II who was on a visit to Pakistan and UAE cut short and returned earlier to meet PM Modi . Both the leaders have developed a fond relationship. Within Weeks King Abdullah II was on a highly significant State visit to India , after a gap of 12 years when over a dozen agreements and MoUs were signed including the one on defence cooperation that has hitherto been elusive due to Jordan’s closer relations with Pakistan. Even 10 B2 B MoUs were signed especially in the phosphates and potash sector .Newer areas of cooperation including ICT and renewable energy were identified and road map was charted. Jordan has emerged as a key collaborator in India’s food security and being rich in Shale deposits could become a reliable partner in our futuristic energy security.
• I would also like to refer to two other important visits one is PM Modi’s first visit to Oman on February 11-12 and Iranian President Rouhani’s recent visit to India from February 15-18. PM Modi had visited Tehran in May 2016. Oman is one country in the region which has maintained good relations with Iran and other GCC countries and can act as a reliable interlocutor in the intra-regional affairs and conflicts. India and Oman relations have been very close and historic . Apart from deeper trade and economic engagement Oman has been a significant defence and anti-piracy partner for India. Indian naval ships keep visiting Salalah and Duqm ports regularly .During the visit eight agreements were signed in military, health, tourism . judicial cooperation , tourism add space sectors . India will be able to use the Duqm port for its military logistical requirements that fits well in its SAGARMALA initiative and maritime security . This was further supplemented by the Agreement India has signed with the French during President Macron visit which will allow India to use their naval bases and facilities in the region.
• As for Iran the visit was significant and clearly indicated that India carries on its bilateral relationships in an independent manner and in pursuance to her national interests. Iran is our major energy security partner and with the development of strategic Chabahar port or the North South Corridor connectivity India’s outreach to Central Asia and Afghanistan will be unencumbered and assured. Although US and western sanctions did have an impact India continued to maintain the momentum in bilateral relations. During the visit of President Rouhani nine MoUs across a wide spectrum were signed . One of the most important aspect was to create a mechanism for Rupee-Rial trade through Asian Clearing mechanism that would obviate going through the vagaries of sanction imposing western banking outfits in order to resolve the contentious issues in the hydrocarbons sector. The Joint Statement underlined "Noting the complementarity of interests and natural partnership in the energy sector, it was agreed to move beyond traditional buyer-seller relationship and develop it into a long term strategic partnership, both sides agreed to continue and increase the pace of negotiation for reaching appropriate results on energy cooperation, including Farzad B gas field. President Rouhani and Prime Minister Modi agreed to further intensify and diversify the existing high-level engagement through frequent and wider range of bilateral exchanges at all levels. In this context, it was decided to convene within this year the meeting of the India-Iran Joint Commission and all its Working Groups, Foreign Office Consultations, dialogue between defense and National Security Council structures of the two countries, Policy Planning dialogue, and to promote Parliamentary exchanges.”
• India has always maintained that it will not take sides in the affairs of our brothers in West Asia but encourages them to resolve the issues bilaterally or through the GCC mechanism. Consistent- with our policy ,even during the Arab Spring phase India was against the external intervention in Libya or Syria and continued to extend the support in their nation building efforts. Our close friendship and concerted engagement has begun to yield tangible results in several areas of our strategic interest in a rather short time as enunciated in the Joint Statement of August 2015 during PM Modi’s visit to UAE first by an Indian PM in a quarter century " — Recognising that India is emerging as the new frontier of investment opportunities, especially with the new initiatives by the Government to facilitate trade and investment, encourage the investment institutions of UAE to raise their investments in India, including through the establishment of UAE-India Infrastructure Investment Fund, with the aim of reaching a target of USD 75 billion to support investment in India's plans for rapid expansion of next generation infrastructure, especially in railways, ports, roads, airports and industrial corridors and parks.
  
  Facilitate participation of Indian companies in infrastructure development in UAE.
  
  Promote strategic partnership in the energy sector, including through UAE's participation in India in the development of strategic petroleum reserves, upstream and downstream petroleum sectors, and collaboration in third countries. "
  
  Several concrete outcomes can be cited. For example the UAE and Saudi Arabia are expeditiously apprehending and extraditing wanted criminals and terrorists like Farouq Takla close aide of Dawood. Ensuring energy security through long term procurement arrangements and stocking sufficient reserves; third country projects; investments in Indian infrastructure etc. Only last week in a first Saudi Arabia permitted Air India to use its air space to fly to Israel which was unthinkable. Or for that matter UAE helping build a Temple in Abu Dhabi which will further enrich cultural and people to people ties. First time joint military and naval exercises are being undertaken and defence and intelligence and counter-terrorism cooperation is acquiring greater salience which also targets and stunts the state sponsored policy of our western neighbour that has become a haven and breeding ground of terrorists and anti-India terrorism.
• Region has been facing profound turbulence and instability in which India could definitely be asked to play a greater role be it in the Middle East Peace Process and Palestine or Syria due to its increasing credibility . But India has to wade through carefully in these fissures as new equations and competition among the erstwhile regional and external powers like Turkey- a NATO member country, US-Russia, China and Iran as well as Saudi-UAE combine could stoke the Shia -Sunni divide further that would debilitate the GCC in the long run would be disruptive for the region with adverse impact on our vital interest. In departure from the past and following real politik PM Modi does not seem to hesitate collaborating with US and other powers in the region since despite perceived withdrawal US still continues to be an arbiter given its might, military bases and long standing ties and strategic interests in the region. As for the recent crisis between Qatar and Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain and Egypt India rightly refused to take sides because India does maintain excellent relations with all the countries bilaterally and has strong stakes in each of them and in their safety and security. Hence it expects the resolution of the issues through dialogue in keeping with her policy. In the wake of the gulf crisis, visiting foreign ministers of Qatar and UAE briefed the Indian government but publicly articulated that while India understood their view point they did not expect India to take sides. India has followed a policy of nurturing bilateral ties with all the countries in the region without getting entangled into their ideological or sectarian fault lines. This is the key success of the foreign policy as India can not afford to be drawn into their ongoing conflicts but in this turbulent era of shifting alliances in the region and Cold War 2.0 on the horizon a time may come when we will have to exercise choices much to our dismay and dislike. Meanwhile India continues to nurture the ties through bilateral exchanges and multilateral engagement. Until then we need to continue to work on finding the right balance that will serve our national and strategic interests better. But as India grows in stature and ambition and follows a policy of clearly articulated objective assessment it will achieve the requisite credibility to be an honest arbiter of peace and productive engagement.
• Friends, I would like to close with PM Modi’s words which sum up the relations that "This region is a key priority in our external engagement. We enjoy vibrant multi-dimensional ties with the countries here and I look forward to strengthening India’s growing and important ties with West Asia and the Gulf region”. I am confident that these initiatives and concerted efforts will take our relations to a new strategic trajectory from the " Petro-Labour” paradigm matrix.